The Nolan Arenado trade to the Cardinals—five years later, what has truly changed? Sometimes, the impact of a major trade can be hard to see in the immediate aftermath, but with time, the true effects unfold in profound ways. And here’s the interesting part: Did this move really shape the future of both franchises? Let’s deeply analyze this blockbuster deal from 2021 and see what history has revealed so far. But here's where it gets controversial... some argue this trade was a win for the Cardinals, while others believe it didn't fulfill the initial high expectations. Which side do you agree with? Share your thoughts at the end!
During the MLB offseason of 2025-26, one of the recurring themes has been revisiting pivotal trades from half a decade ago. Today, we’re focusing on the February 2021 transaction that brought Nolan Arenado from the Colorado Rockies to the St. Louis Cardinals. This trade was more than just a player swap—it was a defining move that impacted both teams’ strategic directions for the next decade.
The Context Before the Deal
The 2020-21 offseason was characterized more by player movements than headline-grabbing free agent signings. Among the most significant moves was the transaction between the Rockies and the Cardinals, where Colorado opted to send its prized third baseman, Nolan Arenado, to St. Louis. This deal marked a new chapter for both franchises and had substantial implications.
The Cardinals’ Drive for Superstar Power
Two offseasons prior, St. Louis had already made a bold move by acquiring Paul Goldschmidt in a trade, aiming to bolster their lineup with a proven power hitter. Goldschmidt’s debut season in 2019 was promising, leading the team into the playoffs and reaching the NLCS.
The 2020 season, shortened due to the pandemic, saw the Cardinals finish with a 30-28 record, largely on the strength of their pitching and defense. Offensively, however, the team struggled—ranking 28th in runs scored and only four of their nine regular starters posted an OPS above .700. Notably, Goldschmidt, Miller, Fowler, and Bader were the key contributors in that regard.
On the home run front, St. Louis’s total was a mere 51, ranking 30th in Major League Baseball—seven fewer than Nolan Arenado’s former team, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Outfield and Third Base Problems
The Cardinals’ outfield stability seemed adequate on paper—Tyler O’Neill led with seven home runs, Bader’s excellent defense in center was a significant asset, and prospects like Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar provided depth. Still, third base was a glaring weakness.
Matt Carpenter, aging and past his prime, saw his production decline drastically from his 2018 peak. His OPS had fallen from .897 in 2018 to just .639 in 2020. With Carpenter’s performance waning, the logical solution was acquiring an elite defender and hitter at third base, which made Arenado’s arrival so appealing.
Colorado’s Resurgence and Decline
A decade after Colorado’s first World Series appearance, the Rockies enjoyed a brief resurgence, making consecutive playoff appearances in 2017 and 2018. Led by Arenado and Trevor Story, their left side of the infield became legendary for its combination of defense and power, with Arenado leading the NL with 38 homers in 2018.
Arenado’s offensive prowess was evident: he was among the best fastball hitters, he excelled at contact against breaking balls and changeups, and his power was amplified by the friendly ballpark conditions in Colorado. He won eight Gold Gloves in his first run, cementing his reputation as one of the best defenders in the game.
However, the Rockies’ pitching took a hit by 2019, with several young arms struggling and posting ERA+ numbers below 80. Their offense also faltered, causing frustration and leading to trade rumors that persisted for about a year, despite Arenado having just signed an sizable eight-year extension—a deal with an opt-out clause after 2021.
Eventually, Colorado traded Arenado before he could exercise that opt-out, signaling a shift in their long-term strategy.
Arenado's Impact in St. Louis
Upon joining the Cardinals, Arenado quickly proved his value. His power bat translated seamlessly—slugging 34 homers in his first season and defying concerns that his power would diminish outside Colorado’s hitter-friendly environment. The 2022 season saw him post an impressive .891 OPS and hit 30 homers, helping the team secure the NL Central title.
He was a finalist for NL MVP honors—losing the award to teammate Paul Goldschmidt—highlighting his influence.
The following seasons, however, brought some setbacks. His slugging percentage slid significantly in 2023, and injuries limited his play in 2024 and 2025, resulting in fewer games and diminished offensive totals.
Despite the changes, Arenado’s defensive excellence remains uncontested. He continues to be a high-ball hitter with remarkable abilities at the hot corner—even as the game evolves and his numbers adjust.
What the Rockies Received
Colorado’s return for Arenado consisted of five players—mainly prospects and minor leaguers—including pitchers Austin Gomber, Tony Locey, Jake Sommers, and infielders Mateo Gil and Elehuris Montero. Each of these players had varying levels of success and setbacks.
Gomber, the most experienced of the group, had a mixed record with the Rockies, showing promise but ultimately struggling with Coors Field’s challenges. Locey, a third-round pick known for his strikeout ability, faced control issues early and was eventually released. Sommers and Montero also faced hurdles, with Montero trading success for consistency at the MLB level.
Final Verdict and Future Outlook
Looking back, while Arenado’s peak production with the Cardinals exceeded expectations initially, his performance tapered off in recent seasons, impacted by injuries and changing game dynamics. Still, the trade was undoubtedly a success for St. Louis—providing three strong years of elite production and deepening their roster.
For Colorado, the return did not spark an immediate or sustained rebuild; instead, it marked a transition period with prospects still finding their footing.
The future of Arenado remains uncertain. Rumors of trades continue—especially with the Cardinals now entering a rebuild phase. Will this be his last chapter in St. Louis? Or is a new move on the horizon?
And this is the part most people miss: the true measure of a trade is not just immediate impact but the long-term strategic shift it inspires. What do you think—was this trade a win for the Cardinals or a missed opportunity? Drop your opinions below and let’s discuss!
For more insights on major MLB transactions, check out our coverage, including a detailed look at the 2020 Yu Darvish trade [here].
