Ever wonder what it takes to be a cycling superstar like Tadej Pogačar? His dominance in races is often described as 'superhuman,' and for good reason! Now, a new study has crunched the numbers, revealing just how much power Pogačar generates on those grueling climbs.
Ole Kristian Berg from Molde University in Norway has published a paper in the Journal of Science and Cycling that estimates Pogačar's power output and VO2 max on six iconic climbs from the 2024 and 2025 Tours de France: Plateau de Beille, Isola 2000, Col de la Couillole, Hautacam, Peyragudes, and Mont Ventoux. This analysis gives us a fascinating glimpse into the physiological demands of elite cycling.
To get these impressive figures, Berg utilized data from Strava and information from the UAE Team Emirates website. He then applied mechanical models of cycling power output, along with findings from previous studies.
The results? Simply astounding. Berg estimates Pogačar's average power output on a climb lasting around 40 minutes to be a staggering 442 watts (+/- 15 watts). To sustain that level of performance, he estimates a VO2 max of 80 mL/kg/min over the 40-minute climb, with peaks reaching 90 mL/kg/min. His estimates for power output in watts-per-kilogram across the various climbs range from 6.4 to 7.0.
But here's where it gets interesting: Berg's calculations rely on certain assumptions. He factors in zero wind and no drafting, and he estimates Pogačar's frontal area, race weight, efficiency, and air density. He also uses a pre-established number for the bike’s rolling resistance.
While Pogačar doesn't publicly share his power data, Derek Gee, who recently ended his contract with Israel-Premier Tech, does. Berg used Gee's data to validate his model of Pogačar's power output, adding another layer of credibility to the findings.
Faster Than Pantani? Berg points out that the finishing times of the top three finishers on the Plateau de Beille in the 2024 race were faster than Marco Pantani's previous record from 1998. He suggests that peak performance numbers during crucial moments, like Jonas Vingegaard's attack and Pogačar's counterattack, were likely even higher.
It's worth noting that elite cyclists have shown very high VO2 max numbers in lab tests, with some exceeding 80 mL/kg/min and even reaching over 90 mL/kg/min.
To put these numbers into perspective, consider Andrew Feather, an elite amateur climber. In a lab test, Feather recorded a VO2 max of 78.7 mL/kg/min and an FTP of 350 watts. While he may not be a Tour de France contender, he was the only rider out of 1,189 starters who wasn't overtaken by Pogačar in the recent Pogi Challenge hill climb in Slovenia (though Feather did have a six-minute head start).
What do you think? Are these numbers believable? Do you think the assumptions made in the study are fair? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
